If you look at the profit graph, you will notice that it still looks very similar to the previous one. That’s because, some of the trades that were lost last time, were filtered by the 50 E MA, but it also filtered some of the winning trades. So the MACD zero lag with the 50 E MA filter, was not that better than the MACD zero lag with 200 E MA filter. But, if you look at the profit graph, you will see that it went up near the end. What made it do that? The winrate with 50 E MA was as bad as the winrate with 200 E MA right? Well, yes! With a 50 period moving average, the MACD zero lag strategy gave less entry signals in the same time period. So I had to take more trades to reach the 100 trades mark. On the same market structure, changing the moving average didn’t make a significant difference to the winrate. The win rate was just as bad as last time. And it went slightly up at the end, because in the new market structure, the price was trending strongly, and few trades were won in a row. MACD zero lag with 200 E MA, would have also made a profit on this new market structure. Now remember, if a strategy got a 35 percent win rate after 100 trades, it is probably not going to get a 60 percent winrate after 200 or more trades. Similarly, if strategy got a 65 percent winrate after 100 trades, it is probably not going to get a 30 percent winrate after 200 or more trades. That’s because, the more trades you take, the less fluctuations you are going to have in your winrate number. So if a strategy gets a 65 percent winrate after 100 trades, there is not really a point in testing it 10000 or 100000 times. Because number 1, there is a high chance you will get a winrate that is slightly less or more than what you already got after 100 trades. And number 2, you are not finding the winrate of a coin toss where the subject remains exactly the same even after 100000 coin flips. The Forex and Stock Market are always changing. So you can say that the accurate winrate doesn’t exist in trading.
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